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JAFEJournal of Applied Financial Econometrics

Latest Articles :- Vol: (5) (1) (Year:2024)

NEXUS BETWEEN CAPITAL FORMATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND UNEMPLOYMENT DURING POST ECONOMIC REFORM PERIOD IN INDIA

BY:   Jitendra Kumar Sinha
Journal of Applied Financial Econometrics, Year:2024, Vol.5 (1), PP.1-14
Received: 16 January 2024   |   Revised: 15 February 2024   |   Accepted: 22 February 2024   |   Publication: 28 June 2024
DOI : https://DOI:10.47509/JAFE.2024.v05i01.01

The relationship between investment and economic growth is far from being settled in the literature as the empirical studies mention divergent findings and the employment & economic growth nexus remains inconclusive. This study investigated the nature of investment, economic growth, and employment in India during the post-economic reform period (1990-2021) within the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) framework. The results show that a longrun relationship exists between these variables, and suggests a piece of evidence in favor of bi-directional causality between employment and economic growth. Economic growth is also found to precede investment, rather than vice versa. It concludes that economic growth is an important driver of investment and employment in the long run in the Indian situation. The study also confirms the hypothesis of jobless growth in the post-economic reform period and suggests that a more favorable economic environment needs to be vigorously engineered through improved infrastructural facilities, and diversification of the economy in the labor-intensive sectors like agricultural and allied sectors to spur investment level in the country.

Keywords: Gross Fixed Capital Formation; Investment; Economic Growth; Employment; Granger Causality; VECM.
JEL Classification: E22; E24.

Jitendra Kumar Sinha (2024). Nexus between Capital Formation, Economic Growth, and Unemployment during Post Economic Reform Period in India. Journal of Applied Financial Econometrics, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 1-14.
https://DOI:10.47509/ JAFE.2024.v05i01.01

THE NATURE OF INFLATION-GROWTH NEXUS IN TUNISIA: EMPIRICAL STUDY WITH ARDL APPROACH

BY:   Rim BAHLOUL
Journal of Applied Financial Econometrics, Year:2024, Vol.5 (1), PP.15-26
Received: 19 January 2024   |   Revised: 25 February 2024   |   Accepted: 05 March 2024   |   Publication: 28 June 2024
DOI : https://DOI:10.47509/JAFE.2024.v05i01.02

This paper examines the impact of inflation on economic growth between 1970 and 2020 using ARDL model. The results confirm a negative relationship between inflation and economic growth both in short and long-term. We found also that money supply affects negatively economic growth in the long-term while it is fragile in the short-term. However, the exchange rate has a negative and insignificant impact on economic growth both in the short-run and the long-run. Therefore, it is necessary to apply some recommendations to fight inflation by trying to moderate it which increases productivity and consequently affect positively economic growth.

Keywords: Economic growth; inflation; short and long-term analysis; ARDL; Tunisia.
JEL Classification: O11 ; E31 ; C22 ; O55

Rim BAHLOUL (2024). The Nature of Inflation-Growth Nexus in Tunisia: Empirical Study with ARDL Approach. Journal of Applied Financial Econometrics, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 15-26. https://DOI:10.47509/JAFE.2024.v05i01.02

ANALYSIS OF THE HEALTH EFFECT OF CARBON EMISSION IN NIGERIA

BY:   Akeem Olabanji Olasunkanmi
Journal of Applied Financial Econometrics, Year:2024, Vol.5 (1), PP.27-39
Received: 14 February 2024   |   Revised: 11 March 2024   |   Accepted: 15 March 2024   |   Publication: 28 June 2024
DOI : https://DOI:10.47509/JAFE.2024.v05i01.03

The quest for industrialization and economic competitiveness has drastically increased global CO2 emission, including in Nigeria. The rising CO2 emission apparently has implications for human health. Hence, this study examines the health effect of CO2 emission in Nigeria using annual data from 1970 to 2022. The Toda-Yamamoto-Dolado-Lutkepohl (TYDL) granger causality test approach was adopted and the result showed no significant relationship between CO2 emission and health indicators
(life expectancy and death rate) in Nigeria. This counterintuitive finding is explained by the nascent stage of Nigeria’s industrialization process. Thus, the study recommended that the Nigerian government and policymakers deploy alternative energy sources that generate less CO2 emission and make them accessible, affordable and reliable to citizens. More so, the government needs to increase the budgetary allocation to the health sector to foster modern service delivery in the sector.

Keywords: CO2 emission, Life Expectancy, Death Rate, Toda-Yamamoto-Dolado-Lutkepohl causality test, Nigeria

Akeem Olabanji Olasunkanmi (2024). Analysis of the Health Effect of Carbon Emission in Nigeria. Journal of Applied Financial Econometrics, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 27-39. https://DOI:10.47509/JAFE.2024.v05i01.03

TAX IDENTIFICATION NUMBER AND TAX EVASION IN NIGERIA: CASE STUDY OF AKWA IBOM STATE BOARD OF INTERNAL REVENUE

BY:   Agbaeze, Clifford Chilasa, Chukwu Peter Damian Ezechi and Catherine Adaogu Okwuchukwu
Journal of Applied Financial Econometrics, Year:2024, Vol.5 (1), PP.41-61
Received: 24 February 2024   |   Revised: 21 March 2024   |   Accepted: 18 March 2024   |   Publication: 28 June 2024
DOI : https://DOI:10.47509/JAFE.2024.v05i01.04

this study is carried out to investigate the effectiveness of Taxpayer Identification Number (TIN) in combating tax evasion in Nigeria (case study of Akwa Ibom State board of internal revenue). In this study, a comparative analysis is carried out to ascertain internally generated revenue of Akwa Ibom State pre and post introduction of Tax Identification Number (TIN). The dependent variable for this study is total revenue before tax and total revenue after tax while the independent variables used in this study is the internally generated revenue before and after introduction of (TIN). Data for this study were sourced from secondary sources, the budget estimates of Akwa Ibom Stae Government serves as the source of data. The result elicited form this study revealed that the introduction of tax payer identification number (TIN) had a significant positive effect on total revenue realized by Akwa Ibom State board of internal revenue, while an insignificant relationship was recorded before the advent of tax payer identification number (TIN), suggesting that(TIN) has reduced tax evasion in Akwa Ibom State. Put differently,  the result revealed that TIN had positive effect in combating tax evasion in Akwa Ibom State during the period under review. This study recommends that holistic tax education should be carried out in order to keep the teeming taxpayers abreast of Taxpayer Identification Number programme in the state. Such as the benefit they can derive from registration for the taxpayer identification programme.

Keywords: Tax identification number, internally generated revenue, tax evasion, Akwa Ibom State, Budget estimates, ARDL.

Agbaeze, Clifford Chilasa, Chukwu Peter Damian Ezechi & Catherine Adaogu Okwuchukwu (2024). Tax Identification Number and Tax Evasion in Nigeria: Case Study of Akwa IBOM State Board of Internal Revenue. Journal of Applied Financial Econometrics, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 41-61. https://DOI:10.47509/JAFE.2024.v05i01.04

ANALYSIS OF SOCIAL EXPENDITURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA

BY:   Agholor, Sozorchukwu Jason, Emmanuel T. Ideba, Anthony Orji, Onyinye I. Anthony-Orji, Jonathan E. Ogbuabor and Chineze Hilda Nevo
Journal of Applied Financial Econometrics, Year:2024, Vol.5 (1), PP.63-84
Received: 11 March 2024   |   Revised: 09 April 2024   |   Accepted: 18 April 2024   |   Publication: 28 June 2024
DOI : https://DOI:10.47509/JAFE.2024.v05i01.05

This study investigated the impact of social expenditure (expenditure on education and health) on economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1989-2020. Secondary data were collected from World Bank Development Indicators and the Central Bank Statistical Bulletin (2021). The variables used include real GDP, education expenditure, health expenditure, inflation rate, debt service payment, real interest rate and real exchange rate. To check if the variables were stationary, unit root test was carried out and cointegration analysis was done to ascertain the existence of long run relationship between the variables and economic growth in Nigeria. The Autoregressive Distributive Lag model (ARDL) was used to estimate the model and the error correction model was used as well to identify the short run effect of social expenditure on economic growth. Based on the objectives of the study, the empirical evidence revealed that health expenditure in the long run, had a positive and significant impact on economic growth. However, for the period under consideration, education expenditure had a significant negative impact on Nigeria’s economic growth. This study also investigated the short-run impact of social expenditure on economic growth in Nigeria, and it was found empirically that only health expenditure had a significant positive impact on economic growth, while education expenditure had significant negative impact on growth. In line with these findings, the educational system should be supervised to guarantee that funding intended for education are used appropriately. Finally, since health expenditure has a major positive effect on economic growth, the government of Nigeria must double its budgetary allocation to the sector.

Keywords: health expenditure, education expenditure, social expenditure, economic growth
JEL Codes: I1, I2, P24

Agholor, Sozorchukwu Jason, Emmanuel T. Ideba, Anthony Orji, Onyinye I. Anthony-Orji, Jonathan E. Ogbuabor & Chineze Hilda Nevo (2024). Analysis of Social Expenditure and Economic Growth in Nigeria. Journal of Applied Financial Econometrics, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 63-84. https://DOI:10.47509/JAFE.2024.v05i01.05

NON PERFORMING LOANS AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF DEPOSIT MONEY BANKS IN NIGERIA

BY:   OSAYI, Valentine Igbinedion and AKEMIEYEFA, Matthew
Journal of Applied Financial Econometrics, Year:2024, Vol.5 (1), PP.85-99
Received: 14 March 2024   |   Revised: 19 April 2024   |   Accepted: 28 April 2024   |   Publication: 28 June 2024
DOI : https://DOI:10.47509/JAFE.2024.v05i01.06

The study sought to investigate the impact of nonperforming loans on the financial performance of deposit money banks in Nigeria from 1991 to 2021. Specifically, the study hypothesizes that non performing loans do not have significant impact on the financial performance of deposit money banks in Nigeria. Using data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin for various years and with the aid of the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) Regression technique as embedded in Eview8.0 econometric software for data analysis, the findings revealed that nonperforming loans have negative significant impact on the financial performance of deposit money banks in Nigeria. Based on the foregoing finding, the study recommended that, the Central Banks of Nigeria (CBN) as the major regulatory authority of the money market in Nigeria in which Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) are active participants should formulate policies that would help to reduce the incidence of high proportion of nonperforming loans in the banking system.There should be regular intervention of the Central Bank of Nigeria in regulating the operational modalities of deposit money banks in Nigeria such that would moderate the excessive lending rate being charged by them. This will go a long way in reducing the incidence of banks’ failures occasioned by high proportion of nonperforming loans in their loan portfolio.

Keywords: Non Performing Loans, Deposit Money Banks, Financial Performance.

OSAYI, Valentine Igbinedion & AKEMIEYEFA, Matthew (2024). Non Performing Loans and Financial Performance of Deposit Money Banks in Nigeria. Journal of Applied Financial Econometrics, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 85-99.
https:// DOI:10.47509/ JAFE.2024.v05i01.06

GOVERNANCE INSTITUTIONS AND FOREIGN AID EFFECTIVENESS IN NIGERIA

BY:   Stanley Uche Akachukwu and Festus Ndidi Osagu
Journal of Applied Financial Econometrics, Year:2024, Vol.5 (1), PP.101-121
Received: 24 April 2024   |   Revised: 19 May 2024   |   Accepted: 28 May 2024   |   Publication: 28 June 2024
DOI : https://DOI:10.47509/JAFE.2024.v05i01.07

Foreign aid is a vital source of finance for developing countries. Existing studies have investigated the effect of foreign aid on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of countries, however, little attention has been devoted to investigating the impact of governance institutions on foreign aid effectiveness in Nigeria. This study, therefore, investigated the effects of governance institutions on foreign aid effectiveness in Nigeria using annual data spanning 1981 to 2020. Two Stage Least Square (2SLS) and General Method of Moments (GMM) models were used as the estimation techniques. The study found that governance institution retards foreign aid effectiveness in Nigeria in both the 2SLS and GMM. The result also showed that there exists an improvement in foreign aid effectiveness during the democratic regime than the military regime in Nigeria. The study concluded that governance institution in Nigeria is weak and negatively affect the effectiveness of foreign aid. The paper recommends requisite institutional reform and strengthening of the governing process to enhance the effective use of ODA in Nigeria.

Keywords: Foreign aid effectiveness, Governance institutions, Economic growth

Stanley Uche Akachukwu & Festus Ndidi Osagu (2024). Governance Institutions and Foreign Aid Effectiveness in Nigeria. Journal of Applied Financial Econometrics, Vol. 5, No. 1, pp. 101-121. https://DOI:10.47509/JAFE.2024.v05i01.07

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