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Continuous depreciation of the Sri Lanka Rupee and huge inflation caused by skyrocketing of fuel and food prices Sri Lanka is now experiencing an external imbalance as well as instability in the domestic economy. Policy makers are confronting enormous challenges due to these external and domestic shocks that would hinder to effective policy implementation. Therefore, an analysis of external shocks and the exchange rate pass-through has now become timely area to understand the size and the degree and its real impact on the economy. Therefore, this paper examines the effectiveness of exchange rate pass-through to import price, producer price and consumer price and impact on the inflation in Sri Lanka. For this purpose, the analysis is based on a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) approach for the period of 2010Q1 -2021Q4.The findings of this study confirms that the pass-through effect of external shocks on exchange rate and exchange rate on import price, producer price and consumer price are incomplete. The impact of change in the exchange rate on the import price shows that the one percent depreciation of Sri Lanka rupee results man increase in the import price index by 0.31 percent in the first quarter and 0.42 percent in the second quarter. The pass-through effects of exchange rate on consumer price is also incomplete across all the periods. The consumer price increases by 0.22 percent when the domestic currency depreciates by one percent. However, in the fourth quarter, it shows a negative response confirming that consumer price decrease by 0.36 percent when the nominal effective exchange rate increases by one percent. The estimated results suggest that the pass-through effects of international oil price shocks and exchange rate shocks appear to be quite ambiguous and provides puzzling results for some periods.

The strategy of oddsmakers to alter point spreads that capitalize on bettors’ preference for popular teams not only dooms regular profits for gamblers but also provides a clear example of imperfect decision-making for behavioral economists. The fear of regret suggests that bettors gravitate toward popular teams since any losses would not be peculiar to them. The implication that spreads on popular college teams would be inflated to balance bets and, in turn, create profit opportunities when betting against popular teams proved faulty.

Keywords: Behavioral Finance • Gambling • Popularity bias • Market inefficiency

JEL Classification: D80 • G40 • G41

A comprehensive and comparative study of Broiler and Turkey has been undertaken in Bangladesh focusing the stability issues. The study compared the profits of broiler and newly introduced Turkey breed in Bangladesh. The data used in the study were obtained from a cross-sectional survey of broiler and turkey farmers in the study areas. Purposive and simple random sampling procedures were used to select 180 farmers for the study. The data collected were analyzed using STATA and descriptive statistics. Major findings of this study indicates high gross and net return for Broiler 12.32 lac and 3.98 lac respectively although because of low cost the return over per Taka investment or BCR (undiscounted) was calculated and found high for Turkey 2.227 & of broiler 1.47. The study also revealed that farmer ’s age, education level had the positive and significant effect and experience, occupation, link with extension services and timely vaccinated had the negative effect for choosing Turkey production (turkey = 1 and broiler = 0). The main impediments to the turkey industry were found lack of proper marketing, veterinary and training facilities turning to a sudden fall in the demand, discouraged farmers to adopt turkey farming. Although both productions were found more or less profitable turkey farmers recorded more profit with less risk and therefore by investing more in turkey could be a strategy to bridging the animal protein supply deficit as a means of increasing farm income.

Keywords: Comparative analysis, Profit, Binary Probit Regression, broiler and turkey production, Problems and Prospects.

The analysis, using an online survey, captures the adjustments in economic behaviour and changes in the choice of financial instruments by the urban middle class in Bangladesh due to Covid-19 pandemic. It shows that 43 per cent of the surveyed households suffered income losses—57 per cent belonging to lower middle class (LMC) and 19 per cent to upper middle class (UMC) households. Nearly one-third of the LMC households reduced their food costs compared with 6 per cent of the UMC households. The pandemic has also initiated large scale changes in their financial behaviour more towards digital and online markets with nearly twothirds reporting high reliance on online purchases. The observed changes indicate a long term transformation in the financial behaviour of the middle class households. Complementary evidence highlights the need for reducing their vulnerability since rising expectations of the expanding middle class are the critical drivers of social change in Bangladesh. The key to such dynamic transformations is the creation of a more learning middle class—a dynamic middle class that would be ready to exploit the opportunities of the ‘new normal’ after the Covid-19 pandemic.

Keywords: Financial behaviour, middle class households, income, Bangladesh

The blue economy improves livelihoods through sustainable use of marine resources and technological inputs, thereby promoting economic growth. Coastal and marine resources of economic importance are the main components of Bangladesh’s blue economy. These resources are divided into biological resources, nonbiological resources, renewable resources, and commercial and trade resources. The extreme events of climate change include warming trends, cyclones, sea level rise, drought, erosion, tides, salt water intrusion, floods, changes in rainfall trends, and ocean acidification. These extreme events will cause coral hiccups, species migration, loss of biodiversity, changes in species lifestyles, changes in the marine food chain, and ultimately affect the national economy. Therefore, establishing the adaptability of marine ecosystems to climate change is the primary requirement for maximizing benefits from the ocean. This background document provides a strategic framework for the implementation of the climate-resilient blue economy in Bangladesh. The framework is divided into four steps (i.e. problem identification, attention to areas that are important for climate change adaptation to the development of the blue economy, and activities to achieve goals and goal realization). Special attention needs to be paid to energy efficiency, marine and coastal biodiversity, ecosystem-based adaptation, building environmental resilience in coastal areas, restoring ecosystems, building economic resilience, and formulating development policies to adapt to the blue economy of climate change. Mangrove planting, oyster reef construction, mussel beds, sea-grass beds, marsh beds and coral reef protection, the use of renewable energy, special interventions in fisheries and island development, crop insurance, floating agriculture and salt tolerance, ecotourism development, marine protection Zones and declarations, ecologically critical areas, marine spatial planning, policy formulation, institutional integration, and continuous monitoring of the ocean are some examples of possible interventions needed for the development

of a climate-resilient blue economy in Bangladesh.

This study investigates a chain of causalities among energy consumption and socioeconomic development in the Indian subcontinent with an annual dataset of 43 years from 1972-2014. By applying Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), it documents that the household final consumption expenditure positively determines the electricity consumption. The chain of causalities is reported in the order that energy consumption causes economic development which causes household final consumption expenditure and household final consumption expenditure causes electricity consumption. The main findings document that economic development led higher living standard positively drives carbon emissions through electricity consumption.

Keywords: Environmental degradation, household final consumption,CO2, causality.

JEL: O, Y

Based on the mathematical analysis of dominant exchange partners in agriculture, we provide a methodology from the perspective of transaction cost that can be used to deal with the relevance of fixed and proportional transaction costs related characteristics to grower choice behavior on trading partner employing multinomial logit regression model consistent with a sample of 351 apple growers collected in field survey in northwestern China. The descriptive statistics results reveal strongly a relationship amongst geographical location of farm households, contractual relationships and grower’s choice on trading partner. The empirical findings indicate that proportional transaction costs related factors have significant correlation with choice behavior on trading partner in apple market. The findings call for a greater attention to establish the trust mechanism and to regulate contractual relationship between exchangers. Encouragement in cooperatives participation of small-scale growers is also highly recommended to mitigate the proportional transaction costs and thereafter to increase agricultural incomes of farm household.

Keywords: Choice; trading partner; Cooperatives; Multinomial logit regression

JEL classification: Q13

This paper tests the validity of the twin deficit hypothesis, the causal relationship between fiscal deficit (FD) and current account balance (CAB), in India for the period 1994-2016 by estimating a structural model that includes the interest rate and exchange rate as an interlinking variable. The SVAR estimates show a negative effect implying that a positive shock given to FD worsens the CAB. The current account deficit, while not directly determined by fiscal deficit, is significantly influenced by RIR and REER. The IRF indicates that a positive shock to FD leads to an increase in the domestic interest rate which appreciates the real exchange rate of the domestic currency making the exports costlier and imports cheaper and thereby widening the current account deficit. The SVAR, IRF and Granger causality analyses show that fiscal deficit affects the current account balance in India through the interlinking variables RIR and REER for the time period 1994 (quarter-I) to 2016 (quarter-IV). This result validates the relevance of the twin deficit hypothesis in the Indian economy and is consistent with the Keynesian proposition in the Indian economy during the study period.

Keywords: Fiscal deficit, current account balance, interest rate, exchange rate, SVAR estimation

This paper uses a mixed Bertrand duopoly model comprising a public firm and a private firm, and investigates the role that production subsidies play in the mixed duopoly model regarding privatization and efficiency. The paper considers substitutive, independent and complementary goods, and examines the following three games: (i) the public firm and the private firm simultaneously and independently set their own prices, (ii) the public firm acts as a Stackelberg leader, and (iii) both firms act simultaneously and independently as profit-maximizers. The paper solves the three games and demonstrates that under the optimal subsidy of each of substitutive, independent and complementary goods, both firms’ profits, prices, outputs and economic welfare are respectively identical regardless of the nature of the competition.

Keywords: Mixed duopoly model; Price competition; Subsidization; Substitutive goods; Independent goods; Complementary goods

JEL classification: C72; D21; L32