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The usefulness of a Markov switching autoregressive model with time-varying regimes in making economic predictions is examined in this paper. The predictive capability of this model was confirmed using data on the Nigerian All-share index and three other macroeconomic variables such as crude oil price, exchange rate and inflation rate from 2006 to 2022. Economic cycles and structural breaks can be detected using Markov switching algorithms, which are becoming popular in econometrics. The study intends to develop a time-varying Markov Switching model with autoregressive components to evaluate the possibility of a market turning from bullish to bearish and vice versa using crude oil prices, inflation rate, and currency rate. By visualizing smoothed regime probabilities, the model is also used to identify turning points or cycles in the All-Share index The analysis shows that the exchange rate, which has a negative impact, is connected with statistical significance in the chosen macroeconomic variables alongside crude oil prices, which have both negative and positive effects, demonstrating a significant connection with the All-share index. The complicated interdependencies between bullish and bearish states are revealed by transition probability matrices, with changing probabilities. Additionally, there are differences in the probability of changing between these states, and smoothed regime probabilities reveal significant changes in market mood, particularly in January 2008, late 2008, early 2009, April 2013, March 2015, and early 2021.

Keywords: All-Share Index, Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rates, Markovswitching Algorithms, Inflation Rate

JEL Classification: C510, E400, E520

Nigeria is estimated to have over 200 million people, this make it necessary for Nigerian government to be very watchful of demographic transition. There are various theories that try to explain the relationship between population growth and economic growth; all of them believe in the effect of population on economic growth. Effect of population on economic growth is relative; it depends on the nature of the country and its economic potentials. In a country with small population and abundance of economic resources, population growth tends to be positive. But, in a country with overpopulation problem, population growth usually resulted in negative or very slow economic growth. Nigeria found herself in between the two extreme positions, thus it needs to (very well) be mindful of how its population growth. This paper has tested two models that try to explain the relationship between social change, population growth and economic growth, using the econometric techniques of ARDL cointegration and Multiple regression analysis. It findings show that population growth affect economic growth in Nigeria; while birth rate affects economic growth positively, death rate affects economic growth negatively. It also shows that net migration, health expenditure and labour force affect economic growth. Population growth is affected by economic growth, labour force and health expenditure.

???????Keywords: Economic Growth, Demography, Social Change, Population, ARDL, Nigeria

This paper conducted to analyze the current banking crisis that began in 2023. The study focuses on the overall portfolio performance and risk in the U.S. banking sector, using a five-asset portfolio consisting of JP Morgan, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and The Charles Schwab Corporation. The portfolio outperformed the benchmark in dollar terms, but exhibited outliers and significant tail risk. Various risk measurement methods were employed, including the Sharpe Ratio, Monte Carlo simulation, and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH). The work found high levels of volatility clustering, skewness, and kurtosis in the portfolio returns, indicating a risky financial scenario. The distribution of returns was tested for normality and found to deviate from a normal distribution. The work aimed to present an accurate snapshot of the current situation and did not manipulate the data to simulate future trading days, as it could introduce biases.

The aim of this paper is to explore the impact of various intangible assets on growth in the small firm. It starts with the hypothesis that superior firm performance depends upon aspects of the entrepreneur’s orientation and the resources they own and control. This approach corresponds to the entrepreneurship and resource-based views that can be found in mainstream, western literature. However, the goal here is to extend this analysis to small firms in the developing world. We use empirical evidence, to which we apply statistical and econometric analysis. The data are gathered anew from a fieldworkbased study of private firms. This was undertaken by face-to-face interviews using an administered questionnaire developed for the purpose. For our sample, we find that entrepreneurial attributes have little significant impact on small firm growth, whereas intangible asset attributes have a positive and significant impact on growth. Our paper suggests that, as far as our empirical evidence goes, little can be attributed to entrepreneurship, in terms of performance and growth, but rather that intangible assets are of key importance. An ability to build upon and exploit these intangibles can therefore help the ownermanager of a small entrepreneurial firm to achieve growth and to improve performance.

Keywords: firm growth, size, entrepreneurship, technology, networking

JEL Codes: L2; D22; L1

The study examines the relationship between the efficiency of microfinance banks and performance of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in South-West Nigeria during the first six years period of the commencement from 2012 to 2017 of regulatory reforms. Using panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) approach and Granger causality test, it is found that the present level of efficiency of microfinance banks has an insignificant impact on the performance of MSMEs, suggesting a negligible role in the activities of MSMEs. Put differently, the efficiency of microfinance banks does not significantly influence the performance of MSMEs. Further evidence indicates that no direction of causality found to be existing between the efficiency of microfinance banks and performance of the MSMEs. Put differently, past efficiency level of microfinance banks could not explain the present level of performance of small businesses (PSB) and vice versa, suggesting that low level of efficiency of microfinance banks contributes to the poor performance of MSMEs. It is therefore suggested that microfinance banks should adopt a suitable lending methodology such as proprietary lending technology and effective risk-based supervision to address the problem of high credit risks associated with business lending. Policy makers should also promote financial inclusion strategy and agent banking relationship more effectively.

Keywords: Microfinance bank, Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), efficiency, business performance, Nigeria

JEL Classifications: G21, L25, H21, L26