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This paper explores possible causal determinants of changing wage and salary informality in Brazil over the period 2000– 2010. We utilize the demographic census and other institutional data sources from the opening and closing years of the decade to estimate informality regressions that exploit variation across workers and municipalities in informality rates and their causal determinants. The change in mean informality over the period is studied by a Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition. We find that two of the most important policy changes over this period – the increase in the real value of the minimum wage and the dramatic expansion of conditional cash transfer programs – contribute positively to informality. Among the factors accounting for the decline in mean informality rates over this time are rising rates of labor law enforcement, rising education levels, increased numbers of workers with spouses in the formal sector, and changes in industry composition, which explain between 16% and 57% of the mean decline in informality over the period. However, most of the decline is accounted for by the changing estimated coefficients on the industry categorical variables – that is, by the changing way in which industrial composition translates into informality.

Key words: Brazil, informal employment, labor law enforcement, Bolsa Família

JEL Classification: J21, J46, O17

This study sought to give the account of micro-credit bank accessibility on small business income. The study employed an intensive research design over an extensive period of time, a 24-weekly visit, for a period of 6 months. The population for this study consisted of a sample of 87 respondents, which involved 53 beneficiaries of micro-credit banks and 34 non-beneficiaries in Northeast Nigeria. Stratified random sampling was employed in selecting the respondents for the study. Data were collected by the use of structured interview questionnaire and processed using Stata. Ordinary Least Square was used to determine whether a group of independent variables could predict a given dependent variable, t–test for mean was conducted to assess the real effect of micro-credit on business income. The three independent variables (credit, savings and supervision) were found to be relevant and positively significant in explaining the effect of micro-credit on business income. The study discovered that the t-test analysis showed a significant difference in the mean value of the beneficiaries as compared to the non-beneficiaries on business income. The study concluded that micro-credit increase business income and hence reduces poverty among micro-credit beneficiaries.

Key words: Credit; Individual households; Nigeria; Savings; Supervision.

We extend the standard Smets-Wouters (2007) mediumsized DSGE model to analyse the effects of news and the Keynesian multiplier. News is modelled in a novel way compared to the literature, as revisions of expectations regarding future fundamentals. News-driven expectations changes augment both the consumption Euler equation and a fiscal rule, which is a secondary innovation of the paper. This news channel significantly improves the model fit to data. We calculate the fiscal multipliers which appear more Keynesian (with a higher effect on output and a positive effect on consumption, more persistent) than argued in much preceding literature.

Key words: DSGE model, news, fiscal policy rule, Keynesian multiplier.

JEL Classification: E120, E620, O230

Goods and service tax (GST) introduced as a ‘good and simple tax’ on 1 July 2017 by the Modi government is the boldest measure of tax reform so far in India. The major aim of this paper is to evaluate the micro and macro impacts of the goods and services taxes (GST) using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Indian economy. This is an original contribution as no such work is found in the literature. This paper applies a dynamic CGE model calibrated to the micro-consistent input-output data of the Indian economy to assess impacts of GST on the efficiency in allocation of resources among production sectors, growth of income and employment over time, the redistribution of income among households in India. While GST reforms will improve specialization in productions of goods and services among the major economic sectors of India by removing distortions in the production and distribution of goods and services, transparency it brings in the tax system will help to maintain above seven percent continuous growth rate in output, investment and physical capital. It also promotes expansion in human capital and the financial system. Anti-corruption measures including recent demonetization of large denomination notes and digitization of economic transactions along with GST reforms will add to infrastructure including construction and expansion of communication networks, massive electrification, development of rail, road, air and shipping networks. By creating better opportunities for education and training for the younger generation, health services for all continuous reforms in direct and indirect taxes will bring speedier growth of income and employment along with more balanced distribution of income.

Key words: GST, Dynamic CGE, India.

JEL Classification: C68, E62, D58, O11, O12

This study investigates the casual relationship between domestic debt and inflation in Nigeria. The study used time series data collected from CBN and DMO annual report and account statement covering the period of 56 year (1960- 2016) while both the descriptive and granger causality techniques were all used to analyze the data. The result indicates that domestic debt is seen to be causally prior to inflation in Nigeria implying that domestic debt influences the general price level in the economy.

Key words: Domestic debt, Inflation, Money Supply, Granger Causality Nigeria

This study found evidence for a time -varying misalignments of equilibrium RER of the Libyan dinar. Markov switching model explains the overvaluation episodes during (1974, 1978), (1986, 1999) and (2011, 2015) and undervaluation episodes during (1962, 1973), (1979, 1985) and (2000, 2010). Policy makers should urgently align the actual exchange rate very close to the movements in fundamentals such as real oil price, real relative productivity and degree of openness in order to avoid the inverse impacts of real exchange rate misalignments, up to by a factor of six now, on the Libyan economy.

Key words: Real exchange rate misalignment, Libya, Markov switching regime.

JEL code: F31, F13, F14

This research is a brief insight into analysing and modelling alcohol consumption, and an alcohol-related outcome (road traffic incidents), to advice policy makers on protecting public health. A panel data methodology is employed using fixed-effect, randomeffect, and feasible generalised least squares estimation from 2000- 2016 for European Union members (including the U.K.). The research confirms an overall robust pro-cyclical nature for alcohol consumption and road traffic incidents; implying they behave in association with the economic cycle of booms and busts. The results also suggest that, following redistribution policies from the top 10% of earners to the bottom 10% of earners, policy makers should consider mitigating a predicted net-increase in alcohol consumption to account for the negative health effects of the drug. Furthermore, the findings are in favour of a unilateral 18+ drinking age law across the European Union which in turn would generate more consistency across the union.

Key words: Macroeconomic conditions; alcohol consumption; economic growth; unemployment; income distribution.

JEL classification: I100; E320; I180