The weak form of the inflation irrelevance proposition posits that domestic inflation does not impact in a statistically significant way stock returns. The semi-strong form is a hypothesis that, not only domestic inflation, but foreign inflation and foreign exchange rate changes also do not affect stock returns. The strong version is that inflation, foreign inflation and exchange rate changes do not explain stock returns neither in the short run nor in the long run. In other terms these three nominal variables do not affect a real variable like stock prices. Stock prices are designated as a real variable because of the net worth or Net Present Value (NPV) equation: nominal cash flows are discounted by a nominal rate and real cash flows are discounted by a real rate, and each is one side of the same coin, and should be equal. The present paper tests the three forms of the inflation irrelevance proposition on the market stock indexes of a sample of 22 countries, both developed and developing. While the weak form and the semi-strong form are solidly validated and supported empirically, the statistical evidence on the strong version is rather mixed and indeterminate. Overall, the proposition of inflation irrelevance fares well, and deserves to be accepted as a new norm or as an established stylized fact to reckon with.
Key words: stock returns, inflation irrelevance, three forms of general neutrality, Gordon constant dividend growth model, multiple regression analysis, international evidence.
JEL Codes: C32, C58, E31, F41, G15
Samih Antoine Azar (2022). The Three Forms of Inflation Irrelevance: International Evidence. Journal of International Money, Banking and Finance, Vol. 3, No. 2,
2022, pp. 201-214. https://DOI:10.47509/JIMBF.2022.v03i02.07