The Effect of Bilateral Investment Treaty on Foreign Direct Investment: A Dynamic Panel GMM-IV Estimation
India has one of the largest Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) networks with other counties around the world. The BITs is to promote foreign investment by increasing investor confidence, empowering individual private parties to take international arbitral proceedings against the threat of appropriation by the government of the host country. This paper analyses the effect of BITs on FDI inflows in India using panel data for 76 countries for the time period 2000-2016 applying a dynamic panel generalised method of moments instrumental variable estimation method.The differenced GMM and system GMM estimates show a significant negative effect of bilateral investment treaties on the FDI inflows in India. While the lagged FDI has a significant positive effect, the financial openness of the source nations is reducing FDI inflows to India. The POLCON index shows that the countries with lesser political constraints have positive FDI outflow towards India. As opposed to domestic variables, the Chinn-Ito and POLCON indices have a greater share of change in FDI inflows to India. It seems that the BITs isnot efficient enough to createinvestorconfidence to invest in India.
Keywords: Foreign direct investment, bilateral investment treaty, generalized method of moments estimation.
Trade Competition and Tariff Reduction Strategies between Taiwan and China
China is now the nexus of production network involving most countries in Asia and a final export market for the East Asia region. Cross-Strait trade and investment between Taiwan and China have surged over the past several years. Owing to differences in their level of industrial development and the resources available to them, there are only a few industries in which Taiwan and China are in direct competition in international markets, while their export performance in each other’s markets is superior to their performance in international markets as a whole. Nevertheless, the similarities in the products that Taiwan and China export to each other mean that the liberalization of cross-Strait trade will have a negative impact on some industries. As regards possible tariff reduction strategies, industries with respect to which Taiwan might be advised to adopt a more aggressive, open tariff reduction strategy include plastics, textiles, glass and glassware, iron and steel, optical instruments, and toys and miscellaneous manufactured articles. Economic considerations will not be the only factors affecting the negotiating strategies chosen; political considerations will also exert a major impact. Analysis of the tariff reduction model adopted by China in the negotiation of trade agreements with other countries in the past shows that the strategy China adopts has tended to vary considerably, depending on the identity of the country with which China is negotiating and various political considerations.
Keywords: regional trade and investment; export competitiveness; tariff reduction strategies.
JEL Classification: F14; F15; F20
The Simultaneous Equations Model of Unemployment and Tariffs: A Panel Data Analysis of the EU
This paper investigates the direction of the unemployment and tariffs relationship, paying a great attention to the simultaneity problem. To solve this problem in the unemployment equation, we obtain the estimates by constructing the simultaneous equations model; considering the direct and indirect influence through tariffs applied by a country. We developed a two-equation simultaneous equations model with two endogenous variables, the unemployment rate and tariffs applied by a country. The proper tests and the model estimation results are obtained using EU 28 countries panel data that cover the period 2009-2018.The results shows the existence of a two-way (bi-directional) relationship between unemployment and tariffs applied to the imports of the EU. This relationship is inversely running from tariffs applied by the EU to unemployment rate however, it is positive when running in the opposite direction (from unemployment to tariffs applied by the EU).
Keywords: Unemployment, Tariffs, Simultaneity, Simultaneous Equations Model, Order condition, Rank condition.
On Approach to Choose Quantity of Industrial Enterprises Employees, which Necessary to Obtain the Required Profit
This paper presents a model for choosing of quantity of employees of an industrial enterprise, which necessary to obtain the required profit. This model allows predicting the possibility of reducing the losses of the enterprise associated with working in the enterprise of an excessive number of employees (wages, payment for the treatment of sick employees, training new employees, ...). An analytical technique is proposed for solving the differential equation used in the model.
Keywords: industrial enterprise; choosing of quantity of employees; model for choosing of quantity of employees; analytical approach for analysis of model.
How to Explain the Price of Bitcoin?
Bitcoin price is still a puzzle, despite the highly evolving literature on this topic. This paper tries to identify some variables to explain the evolution of bitcoin price. We show that macroeconomic variables and Google searches tend not to account for bitcoin price any more. We are therefore interested in variables specific to the crypto-assets ecosystem: volumes of ether, ripple and tether. The negative relationship between bitcoin price and these volumes shows that these crypto-assets are probably used for price manipulation or pump and dump activities on the bitcoin market.
Keywords: bitcoin, ether, ripple, tether, crypto-asset, asset pricing, price manipulation.
JEL Classification: E42, G11, G12, G15.
The relationship between CSR and Performance and Value in the US Energy Industry: A Study of Data 2011-17
This research studies the relationship between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and corporate financial performance (CFP) of the energy industry in the United States from 2011 to 2017. The sample includes the 29 companies that belong to the S&P 500 Energy Index. The model specification of this research uses both accounting and market metrics of performance for measuring the relationship between ESG indicators and performance.(return on equity, price earnings ratio and share price). Corporate social responsibility is measured by using ESG scores published by Bloomberg. Other independent variables include earnings per share and size. Statistical techniques are applied in order to determine the characteristics of the sample. Using the Generalized Method of Moments method, dynamic panel models were estimated. The findings obtained show that ESG is a significant variable to determine financial and market performance. The conclusion is that companies which have higher ESG expenditure in the US energy industry are associated with higher profitability and market price.
Keywords: Financial performance, ESG performance, Sustainability
JEL classification: M14, G39, G34, G31
Determinants of Profitability and Value Creation in International Airlines listed on the New York Stock Exchange
This study is based on the top 12 airline firms of the NYSE to evaluate the profit and value drivers across the sector taking into account internal variables and market conditions. Limited research is currently available linking the performance drivers of profit and value and identifying the determinants for each. The airline sector is a specifically important focus for current and future studies as the frequency of both commercial and freight air-travel is important for the economy. In order to determine and measure the effect of each critical industryspecific and market-based variable on a firm’s profit and value, a panel data regression is utilized. Results from the model show that return on equity is positively correlated with operating margin and negatively correlated with current ratio and the level of revenue, while gearing is positively correlated but not significant. Therefore, the profitability for firms in the airline sector grows as each of the independent variables mentioned above increases or decreases. In the next part of the study which studied the relationship between profitability and market value, it was found that profitability feeds into market value and the latter measure is higher for the companies with higher market capitalization. The coefficients of the oil price and inflation were positive and negative respectively, though these were not significant. The importance of prudent management of operating expenses and working capital policies is clear. Accounting profitability is also higher at airlines with a lower revenue. Value creation, as measured by market to book ratio, is positively and significantly correlated with profitability and market capitalization. Value creation is also positively correlated with oil prices and negatively correlated with inflation though the relationship is not significant with the latter two variables. Overall the goal of the study was successfully met by pinpointing the determinants which most maximize profitability and value creation in firms across the airline sector of the NYSE and presenting the implications ofthese findings.
Keywords: New York Stock Exchange, profitability, value creation, dynamic panel
JEL classification: G1,G2,G3
Response of Domestic Price Changes to Exchange Rate Movements in Singapore
Based on a simultaneous-equation model, this paper shows that if the Singapore dollar depreciates 1% versus the U.S. dollar, the consumer price in Singapore would decrease by 0.1274%. In addition, decrease in government borrowing as a percent of GDP, more money supply, a higher U.S. price level, a higher crude oil price, and a higher expected price level would raise Singapore’s consumer price level. Therefore, exchange rate pass-through is not confirmed for Singapore.
Keywords: Exchange Rate Pass-Through, Exchange Rates, Consumer Prices, Money Supply, Crude Oil Prices.
JEL Classification: F31, F41