his paper hypothesizes that financial literacy and awareness have a major impact on individuals’ participation in the financial markets. The paper empirically examines the factors determining the participation of individuals in the financial markets using qualitative data collected through questionnaire covering a sample of 484. Categorical data were collected from individuals residing in Arusha, Tanzania. The paper applies logistic regression model and maximum likelihood technique of estimation to analyse the variables that influence the participation of the financial markets. Findings show that there is a positive and statistically significant relationship between financial literacy,awareness and people’s participation in the financial markets. The implication here is that people with financial knowledge have a better chance of investing in financial market despite their education level. Indeed surprisingly, results reveal that the level of education has no effect on the participation of the financial markets. Moreover, other variables such as gender, marital status, risk attitude and level of income play a significant role in influencing individuals’ participation in the financial markets. It is revealed that the male and married individuals are more likely to invest in the financial markets. The policy implication of these results is that increasing training, awareness of the benefits, and operations of the financial markets, will result in people opting to participate in the financial participation which will, in turn, lead to increased trading of financial assets and hence create a ripple effect to the country’s economy.
Keywords: Financial Literacy, Financial Markets, Logit Modeling
JEL Classification: C35, D81, G10.
Occurrence of industrial revolution in the late of eighteenth century and early of nineteenth century is beginning of capitalist economic system. Since that time on, this system passed numerous financial, economic and banking crises. Theoretically, there are many reasons to confirm that financial, economic and banking crises are natural phenomena in capitalist economic system. On the other hands, occurrence of many serious crises during these two current centuries can confirm the hypothesis in above in terms of evidences and statistical evaluations. However, it can be concluded that financial, economic and banking crises are basically concerning and they need to investigate and analyze suitable policies to prevent and manage crises.
The main objective of this study is to determine effective factors on banking crises during the period of 2001 to 2017 for 35 developing countries with normal income. Therefore,data are panel data type and the estimation method is in the field of Logit method.
The results show that economic growth variable has negative and significant effect on the possibility of being bank in the crisis for one year or more than two years. Inflation variable has also positive and significant effect on crisis occurrence for one year or more than two years. Depreciation variable does not have significant effect on financial crisis occurrence.Open degree variable has positive and significant effect on crisis occurrence. Also, the results show that liquidity variable has negative and significant effect on crisis occurrence for one year; however, it does not have significant effect for more than one year. Leverage ratio variable has negative and significant effect on crisis occurrence for one year or more.The ratio of credit to economic growth has positive and significant effect on crisis occurrence in one year time only. The ratio money saving variable (the ratio of money capacity tosaves) has negative and significant effect on crisis occurrence for one year time. However,it has positive and significant effect for more than one year time.
Finally, the fact that financial crisis patterns are useful tools for policy making, but should not replace financial legislators? judgement. It is clear that even at the international levels,financial crisis patterns are only used as a troubleshooting tool for economy. As a result,updating such patterns for monitoring macroeconomic performance and troubleshooting-policies in community macroeconomic management can be useful. These models can be used for the causes of financial crisis formation in the country.
Key words: Banking Crisis, Macro economic Variables, multiple Longit model, Developing Countries
JEL: G01, G21, E58, F45, J11.
Loss reserving is a fundamental topic for a non-life insurance company. It includes several activities from claims management to set actuarial models. Differently from the past when it was a heuristic ancillary part of risk theory and non-life insurance mathematic today has become a great actuarial research field. From nineties every year a lot of paper are published in actuarial journals. This work is originated from the experience of an introductory university lecture kept many times from the author. Some examples a retaken from Italian regulation.
Keywords: Loss reserving; Technical provisions; Claims handlers; Stochastic models;Solvency II.
JEL Classification Numbers: C13, G22, M40.
Global as well as national economic growth crucially depends on crude oil and its price volatility invariably has macroeconomic repercussions including stock markets,inflation, interest rate and exchange rate. This paper analyses the effect of global crude oil price on Indian economy in an endogenous framework for 35 long years from 1981 to2015. The causal longrun relationship between crude oil price and gross domestic product,gross capital formation and real effective exchange rate applying the vector auto regression estimation method. The time series diagnostic tests show no stable lon grun relationships and no co integration between the variables. The VAR estimates reveal that no significant effect of crude oil price on macroeconomic variables in India. Rather the crude oil price issignificantly related with the lags of the macroeconomic variables. A significant proportion of variations in crude oil price is due to the shock in gross capital formation, besides it sown shock. The crude oil price shock affects the Indian economy mostly in the initial few periods and the crude oil price volatility effect eventually becomes zero over time.
Keywords: Oil price, volatility, macroeconomic performance, VAR estimation.
We explored corporate financial risks associated with firm financing decisions,which are the most important determinants of firm condition. We applied an integrated approach combining financial tools, statistical tools, and Altman Zscore to measure different elements of financial risk of the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) listed publicly traded manufacturing companies from 2001 to 2017. This approach is unique and hardly find in related literature. The findings showed that the financial risk exposure of the sample companies was at a tolerable level with a few exceptions. More revealing is that some companies had enough scope for taking the advantages of financial leverage by adding more debt in their capital structure. We have also studied the financial health and insolvency risk of the sample companies using Zscore and found that 9 out of 48 sample companies had potential risks of financial distress. These findings are useful for corporate stakeholders to make informed decisions. However, we have used ratio analysis as a financial tool to assess the financial risk exposure and presented the results sector wise to overcome some of its limitations. But, the zscore analysis does not incorporate pre-bankruptcy non financial events that may result in bankruptcy.